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GDP projection: GDP growth expected to be 8.5 percent in FY22: ICRA

New Delhi: Rating agency ICRA has projected India’s GDP growth at 8.5 per cent in FY12. According to ICRA, the year-on-year (YoY) growth of GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices (at 2011-12 prices) are expected to reach 8.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent in FY22, respectively.

"The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing state-wise restrictions were seen in various high frequency indicators in April-May 2021. Now that the fresh cases have subsided, and restrictions are being eased, we have our baseline GDP growth forecast for FY22 at 8.5 per cent, said ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair.

Icra said that if vaccine coverage picks up after the re-centralized procurement policy, GDP could expand to 9.5 per cent in FY22, with broader growth in Q3 and Q4 of FY22. The country’s GDP declined by 7.3 percent in FY2020-21. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had projected real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22. For the full year, it expects GDP growth to exceed GVA growth by 120 basis points, based on expectations related to the value of taxes on products.

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